If you're comparing Dundas to Northfield or the south metro right now, the portal median is going to mislead you. Not because the number is wrong, but because it's a blend of two very different Dundas markets that are about to separate further. One is the resale pool you've been touring. The other is a wave of newly approved lots that will land at a lower price point, on smaller footprints, with different construction, over the next 12 to 24 months.
The single median hides a supply-mix change the portals won't reflect until closings catch up. Buyers who price against the wrong pool will either overpay for resale or underestimate what the new floor plans actually offer.
The Headline Number, and What It's Blending
Redfin's May 2026 read pegs the Dundas median sale price at $396,763, up 8.7% year over year. At the same time, Movoto shows a May 2026 median list price of $479,000 at roughly $215 per square foot, with homes spending a median of 63 days on the market. Statewide, for context, the Minnesota median sits at $379,900 with about 1.59 months of supply and homes selling for 99.9% of listing prices.
Two things are worth pulling out of that. First, the gap between the $396K sale median and the $479K list median is unusually wide for a small town, which tells you the current active inventory skews higher than what's actually closing. Second, days on market at 63 is well above the state's read, which means sellers who price to the aspirational list number are sitting.
Now add the piece the portals don't price in yet: the pipeline.
What Just Got Approved, and Why the Lot Size Matters
Dundas has spent the last six months approving developments that, taken together, could add close to 100 new single-family homes plus a downtown apartment project. The individual pieces have been covered in local reporting. The combined effect on comps has not.
The centerpiece is Stone Ridge Hills Second Edition. The City of Dundas moved forward in February 2026 with a preliminary plat amendment for a 60-lot single-family subdivision on the west side of town near County Road 78 and Dundas Boulevard, led by national homebuilder D.R. Horton in partnership with Land Craft Development of Woodbury. The final plat and a tax abatement package were approved earlier in the spring, and construction could begin almost immediately.
Here is the piece that changes the math. The development amends an existing Planned Unit Development to allow for smaller lots and slab-on-grade homes, a shift from the city's traditional 10,000-square-foot single-family standards. That is not a cosmetic change. It resets the entry-level product Dundas can offer. If the associated TIF arrangement is approved, future buyers would need to meet income-qualification standards, aimed at teachers, police officers, young families, and others priced out of the current market.
A quick way to see what's in the pipeline:
| Project | Scale | Builder / Developer | Status as of spring 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stone Ridge Hills Second Edition | 60 single-family lots, PUD with smaller lots and slab-on-grade | D.R. Horton with Land Craft Development | Final plat and tax abatement approved; construction imminent |
| Bridgewater Heights annexation parcel | Proposed 34-lot single-family neighborhood | Requires annexation from Bridgewater Township | Under review, early stages |
| Bridgewater Heights (current phase) | 49 total new single-family homes along Bridgewater Parkway and Tower Avenue | City-listed active project | Ongoing construction |
| Cannon Valley Estates | Single-family, River Valley Lane off Railway Street South | City-listed active project | Ongoing construction |
| Cannon Ridge (Cottage series) | Smaller-footprint floor plans including the Tatum and Ferguson | D.R. Horton | Actively listed |
| Railway Street mixed-use | ~116 apartment units, ground-floor commercial | Rebound Partners | Letter of intent, TIF and remediation pending |
The Bridgewater Heights annexation piece would add a potential 34-lot single-family neighborhood, and combined with Stone Ridge Hills the two proposals could eventually add close to 100 housing units to the community if approved. The city's own project page confirms that construction continues in Bridgewater Heights along Bridgewater Parkway and Tower Avenue with 49 new single-family homes when complete, and at Cannon Valley Estates on River Valley Lane off Railway Street South.
The Cottage Series, and What Your Money Actually Buys
If you've only looked at Dundas resale, you may not have run into D.R. Horton's Cannon Ridge yet. The Cottage series is a smaller-footprint product line built on the same PUD logic. The Ferguson is the mid-sized Cottage plan with a covered patio and corner walk-in pantry, offered at Cannon Ridge in Dundas, with an open main level, hard flooring, a spacious kitchen featuring quartz countertops, stainless appliances, and an island. The Tatum is the smaller Cottage plan in the same community.
This matters for comparison shoppers in two ways. First, if you have been assuming a Dundas single-family home means a full basement, a two-story elevation, and a 10,000-square-foot lot, the Cottage product is a different animal, and it is being priced to compete with entry-level Northfield townhomes rather than mid-tier Northfield resale. Second, once these homes start closing in volume, they will drag the Dundas closed-sale median downward at the same time the mix is genuinely improving for entry buyers. A falling median in 2027 will not mean Dundas values are falling. It will mean the pool of what's selling has widened at the bottom.
The Railway Street Wildcard
Slightly different animal, same market effect. The Dundas City Council took initial steps on February 23 toward a proposed $26 million apartment development along N Railway Street, which would redevelop six parcels north of Hester Street into a four-story mixed-use building with 116 housing units and ground-floor commercial space. The project team is working with Rebound Partners, and the council recently authorized the city to apply for a state DEED grant to remediate contamination on the former co-op fertilizer site, a critical step before construction can begin, with Phase I and Phase II environmental reviews already completed.
If the site clears remediation and financing, Dundas gains rental inventory it currently does not have, plus ground-floor commercial that changes what walking to a coffee looks like from the surrounding blocks. For a buyer weighing a starter home in Dundas versus renting longer in Northfield, that timeline is a real input.
Which Comp Pool Actually Applies to You
Here is where the mid-funnel work happens. Before you make an offer, sort yourself into one of these three pools, and price against that pool only:
- Established resale in Bridgewater Heights, in-town Dundas, or older subdivisions. Comp against closed sales of similar vintage and lot size in the last six months. The $396K median is closer to your real reference than the $479K list median. If a seller has been sitting past 60 days, the ask likely reflects the aspirational side of that gap.
- New construction on standard lots (current Bridgewater Heights and Cannon Valley Estates phases). These are still building to the older 10,000-square-foot norm. Price against builder base plus documented option upgrades. Comparable Northfield new-build product is your cross-check.
- PUD new construction (Stone Ridge Hills Second Edition, Cannon Ridge Cottage series). Smaller lot, slab-on-grade, entry-level pricing. Do not comp these against resale two-story homes on 10,000-square-foot lots. That is the mistake portal Zestimates are about to make for the next 12 months.
If you are selling into this market, the sequencing question is different. A resale listing that goes live at the same time D.R. Horton opens a Cottage model at Cannon Ridge will lose foot traffic on the weekends buyers tour models. Getting under contract before the model home opens, or waiting until the initial model-home rush passes, is a real timing decision, not a superstition.
FAQ
Are the new PUD homes going to lower my resale value? Not directly. They are competing in a different price band. What they will do is compress the appreciation curve at the entry level while resale on larger lots holds its own, because the buyers priced into a Cottage plan were not going to bid on a 2,400-square-foot two-story anyway.
When do the new Stone Ridge Hills homes start closing? Final plat and tax abatement were approved and construction could begin almost immediately as of late April 2026. Realistically, first closings on a 60-lot subdivision this size roll in over a period of many months once vertical construction begins, not all at once.
Does the TIF income qualification apply to every buyer in Stone Ridge Hills? The reporting indicates that if the TIF request is approved, future buyers would need to meet income-qualification standards, described as workforce housing rather than low-income units. Ask your agent to pull the final terms of the approved TIF district before you write anything, because the income and price bands there will shape resale for years.
How is Dundas different from Northfield right now? Dundas is adding entry-level supply through PUD approvals faster than Northfield is, and it has a pending downtown apartment project that Northfield does not have on the same scale. For a buyer whose ceiling is in the low $400s, that is a real advantage, and it is not showing up on the portal comparison pages yet.
If you are trying to decide which comp pool your offer, or your listing, should be priced against this summer, that is exactly the conversation to have before you tour another open house. Megan Culhane works these Dundas subdivisions and their Northfield counterparts every week and can walk you through the pipeline street by street. Turn the Key to New Beginnings by reaching out for a comp review that reflects the market Dundas is becoming, not the one the portals are still averaging.
